UK profit warnings jump 20% in Q2 as retailers feel the strain

Profit warnings issued by UK-listed companies rose by 20% in the second quarter of 2025, as policy and geopolitical uncertainty weighed on business confidence, according to new figures from consultancy EY-Parthenon.

Companies issued 59 warnings between April and June, up from 49 in the same period last year. Nearly half of the warnings – 46% – cited policy change and geopolitical uncertainty as a key factor, the highest proportion in more than 25 years of EY’s analysis and a steep rise from 4% a year earlier.

Warnings citing contract and order cancellations or delays remained at a record level of 40%, while one in three referenced tariff-related impacts, including weaker demand, supply chain disruption and exchange-rate volatility.

Over the past 12 months, nearly a fifth of UK-listed businesses have issued at least one profit warning, EY-Parthenon said.

Silvia Rindone, EY partner and UK and Ireland retail lead, said: “Profit warnings among listed retailers rose sharply in the second quarter, with the seven alerts more than double the three recorded during Q1.

“This spike highlights both softening consumer demand and the deeper structural headwinds facing the sector. Retailers we speak to tell us that falling sales are currently indicative of a longer-term shift, with consumers becoming more value-focused and less brand-loyal, which leaves cost-pressured retailers in a bind.”

She added: “Despite ongoing pressures, including the rise in National Insurance contributions and the National Living Wage, alongside tariffs, investment in technology including AI remains essential. The winners will be those who get the basics right, such as range, service and pricing, whilst continuing to build for the future with leaner models, sharper propositions and digital resilience.”