Total till sales rise 4.1% amid back to school rush

Total Till sales at UK supermarkets grew (+4.1%) in the last four weeks ending 6th September 2025, up from the +3.7% recorded in August, signalled by the end of Summer holidays as shoppers shifted focus to back to school items and preparations for Christmas celebrations.

According to the latest data from NielsenIQ, the growth was also likely supported in part by rising inflation (+4.1%), which increased the overall basket value. Across the Grocery Multiples unit sales fell -0.2%.

Cautious of rising household bills, retailers were reluctant to pass on the full cost of business or supply chain pressures, as consumer demand remained transient and relatively weak. As a result, sales of items purchased under promotions increased slightly to 23.5% of sales, with shoppers leaning on loyalty card discounts to secure the best deals.

Visits to stores continued to increase (+4.8%), while online shopping occasions also grew (+1.9%), reflecting the ongoing “little and more often” shopping behaviour across both in-store and online grocery channels.

Looking at category trends, meat, fish, and poultry saw a strong increase, with total sales up (+9.2%) and units rising (+1.6%). Soft drinks also performed well, with sales up (+10.6%) and units purchased up (+4.4%), supported by the sunny weather at the end of August. In addition, health, beauty and toiletries saw sales rise (+6.2%) with the number of items also up (+1.5%).

In terms of retailer performance, Lidl (+11.4%) and Ocado (+14.3%) continue to lead growth with Marks and Spencer also growing (+8.5%). In the last four weeks, one in four shoppers visited Marks and Spencer, a +11.9% growth in shoppers on last year, enticed by the new seasonal food ranges, new store openings and social media engagement.

Sainsbury’s (+5.6%) and Tesco (+5.0%) also both gained market share with Waitrose (+4.6%) maintaining momentum throughout the summer.

Mike Watkins, head of Retailer and Business Insight at NielsenIQ, said: “Following the hottest summer on record, which encouraged spending and sustained food and drink sales, the industry now faces the challenge of navigating higher inflation.

“One in three households currently identify the cost of living as their top concern, up from 22% in March, while nearly two-thirds of shoppers report being moderately or severely affected by rising costs, compared with 56% a few months ago. As households switch their heating back on and prepare for additional spending ahead of Christmas, most consumers anticipate that financial pressures are set to increase further.”

Watkins added: “Looking ahead, with many shoppers unable, unwilling, or reluctant to spend freely, if food inflation reaches 5% or more by the end of the year, this could limit some of the volume increases typically seen during the Golden Quarter.

“So for retailers, three key challenges lie ahead: securing sales growth in the face of rising inflation to drive volume, encouraging ‘trading up’ across different shopping missions, and ensuring that media messages and forthcoming advertising campaigns resonate with increasingly price-sensitive consumers.”