Grocery price inflation falls for seventh consecutive month

Grocery price inflation has fallen for the seventh month in a row to 11% for the four weeks to 1 October 2023, the lowest rate since July 2022, according to new data from Kantar.  

Over the period, take-home grocery sales rose by 9.1% compared with last year, as people enjoyed the joint warmest September on record.

Amid the sunnier weather, the volume sales of ice cream, burgers and dips rose by 27%, 19% and 10% respectively, while sun care product sales more than doubled across the month.  

Lidl was the fastest growing retailer over the period, with sales up by 15.2%. This is the first time that Lidl has led on sales since April 2023, and according to Kantar, the growth means it now has a market share of 7.6%, up 0.5% year-on-year.  

Meanwhile, Aldi’s sales were up by 14.9%, with its total share of the market now at 9.9%, up by 0.6% against last year.

Tesco saw sales rise by 9.2% over the latest 12 weeks, with its market share edging up by 0.4 percentage points to 27.4%.  

Sainsbury’s share grew to 14.8% as its sales increased by 9.1%, while Asda and Morrisons now hold 13.7% and 8.6% of the market. Waitrose reported a 4.6% share with sales up by 5.3%, and Co-op’s market share sits at 6.1% with sales up 3.3%. Finally, Iceland’s sales rose by 2.8%, and Ocado sales by 9.6%.

Tom Steel, strategic insight director at Kantar, said: “Grocery price inflation is still very high, but shoppers will be relieved to see the rate continuing to fall.  For the first time since last year, the prices of some staple foods are now dropping and that’s helping to bring down the wider inflation rate. 

“Supermarkets are looking at all the different ways they can deliver value at the tills and while the emphasis for some time has been on everyday low prices, the retailers are starting to get the deal stickers out again. Spending on promotions made up over a quarter of all sales in the latest 12 week period at 26.5%, the highest level since June 2022.”