Supermarket sales growth slows ahead of Black Friday

Total Till sales at UK supermarkets rose by 3.2% in the four weeks to 1 November 2025, according to new data from market researcher NielsenIQ (NIQ).

The figure marks a slowdown from 4.1% growth in September, as shoppers held off spending in anticipation of seasonal promotions such as Black Friday and faced continued pressure from inflation.

Retail spending softened amid wider economic strain, with Black Friday at the end of November expected to play a key role in stimulating demand. NIQ said that 45% of households took part in Black Friday last year, describing it as one of the biggest online shopping days across both fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and wider ecommerce.

During Amazon’s Big Deals Day this year, personal care and beverage categories saw a lift in market share as consumers sought savings on higher-priced items. NIQ said this trend may have affected FMCG sales, with average spend per visit down 0.6%.

Across FMCG, only three major categories recorded unit growth in the latest four-week period: dairy (up 1.6%), meat, fish and poultry (up 1.4%), and fresh produce (up 0.4%). Confectionery unit sales fell 3.1% despite the Halloween period, with a 4.4% increase in value sales attributed mainly to inflation.

In-store visits rose by 3.9% as supermarkets continued to use loyalty schemes and promotions to attract shoppers. Promotional sales accounted for around 24% of total spend, NIQ said.

Among retailers, Ocado remained the fastest-growing grocer, up 13.8% year on year. Sainsbury’s and Tesco posted growth of 5.5% and 4.8% respectively, extending their lead over Asda, where sales fell 6.5%, and Morrisons, which was up 1.9%. Waitrose rose 4.8% and Marks and Spencer 9.6%.

Sales at Lidl increased 10.7%, ahead of Aldi on 4.4%, with both discounters expected to maintain strong momentum as new stores open before the end of the year.

Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight at NielsenIQ, said: “The slowdown in growth in the last four weeks was not helped by continued inflation, fragile consumer confidence and a generally mild October. Any discretionary spending power has not translated into extra food and drink sales at food retailers during the Halloween half term. And the mood music around possible tax rises in the November budget may not have helped sentiment either.

“The upside is that whilst shoppers are economising, they are not compromising. With a weakness in out-of-home spend, shoppers are likely to dine in more, which means food retailers are likely to see strong growth in premium private-label ranges in the next few weeks. NIQ sees food sales growth continuing at current levels for the rest of November, but we expect sales to accelerate in early December depending on the success of current advertising campaigns and the impact of Black Friday on spending.”