Grocery inflation eases to 4.7% as supermarkets step up Xmas promotions

Grocery price inflation slowed to 4.7% this month as supermarkets stepped up promotions ahead of Christmas, according to new data from Worldpanel by Numerator.

Take-home sales at grocers rose by 3.2% in the four weeks to 2 November compared with the same period last year, with spending on promoted items up 9.4%. In contrast, spending on full-priced goods increased by just 1.8%.

Black Friday week is expected to give grocers a further lift, particularly online. During the same week last year, Amazon led general merchandise sales, followed by Tesco and Asda, with overall market sales up by 114%. Electronics, beauty and toys saw the largest increases compared with a typical trading week in 2024.

Online remained the fastest-growing grocery channel, with spending on home delivery rising 11% in October.

Ocado benefited from this trend, achieving record market share of 2.1% in the 12 weeks to 2 November and remaining the fastest-growing grocer for a third consecutive month. Its 15.9% sales growth was the strongest since April 2021.

Tesco and Lidl each gained half a percentage point of share. Lidl’s sales grew 10.8%, lifting its share to 8.2%, while Tesco’s 5.9% growth took it to 28.2%. Sainsbury’s sales rose 5.2%, bringing its share to 15.7%.

Aldi grew sales by 4.4% to hold 10.6% of the market, while Iceland’s 4.9% increase lifted its share to 2.3%. Morrisons’ sales edged up 2.3%, giving it 8.3% of the market, and Waitrose rose 3.8% to 4.4%. Co-op holds 5.4%, while Asda accounts for 11.6%.

On the wider high street, Marks and Spencer recorded its strongest grocery sales growth since June, with spending up 8.8% year on year.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, said: “Christmas ads are hitting our screens and the race to the big day is on in the supermarket sector. Retailers are very alive to the financial struggles that some households are facing, not least ahead of this year’s Budget.

“They’re eager to show how they’re offering shoppers value for money, putting the emphasis on price cuts rather than multibuy offers. It’s not just the Grinch who’s looking for savings with just shy of 30% of consumer spending at the grocers on promoted items in October, a figure that we expect to go even higher as we get closer to Christmas.”

Despite tighter household budgets, Worldpanel expects premium own-label lines to hit record sales this December, potentially exceeding £1bn.

McKevitt added: “It’s important to remember that shoppers often look for great value and quality, not just the cheapest product. At Christmas especially people want to treat themselves and throughout the cost of living crisis we’ve seen them turning to retailers’ premium own label lines to do that in a way that’s more affordable. Sales of these goods were worth £582m in the latest month and they are likely to double as Christmas edges nearer, topping £1bn in December for the first time ever.”