Supermarket till value sales rise to 11.5% in March

As food inflation in March soared to 15%1, total till value sales rose to 11.5% in the last four weeks ending 25 March, up from 11.1% in February, according to new data from NIQ.

UK supermarkets experienced a 7% increase in shopping visits to stores, with a 13% uplift in spend in-store compared with the same time last year. NIQ said this is likely due to many UK households looking to plan ahead and shop around to save money on their grocery shopping as many continue to be faced with higher monthly household bills.

NIQ also found that 44% of Brits agree that retailer vouchers and coupons are important in determining where they shop – this rises to 55% of those severely impacted by the increased cost of living crisis.

Moreover, 54% of Brits stated that price discounts via loyalty cards were most likely to encourage them to buy a product. Consequently, a ‘special price discount’ for loyalty card holders is the top response (35%) from UK shoppers when asked which different promotions are likely to influence where they shop. This is followed by an everyday low price as a close second (34%).

Over the four week period, volume sales across the grocery multiples fell -3.9%. While this is an improving trend, it still indicates that spend is continuing to shift to the discounter channels, with Aldi and Lidl’s combined growth continuing to be above 20%.

However, M&S experienced good momentum following Valentines day and further helped by Mothering Sunday. Data from NIQ reveals that across all grocery channels, shoppers spent £2.8bn in the week ending 18 March – this is £168m more than last Mothering Sunday (+6.4%), with key categories being cut flowers (+5.8%)3 and chocolate gift boxes (+16.8%) showing that despite the cost of living crisis, there was a willingness to spend more for this event with positive unit growth for both.

Mike Watkins, NIQ’s UK head of Retailer and Business Insight, said: “Our recent survey indicates that during a period of high inflation, shoppers are looking for different ways to save money and loyalty card savings are a ‘win-win’ strategy as they reward both shoppers and retailers. They give meaningful savings, shoppers prefer the immediacy of the discount and they are a promotional mechanic likely to influence where they shop, while also encouraging category purchasing.

“Sales should rally this week for Easter (against pre-Easter week last year), and sales at the grocery retailers could top £3bn this week, achieving growth in excess of 20% which will be welcome news for retailers. Over the next four weeks, supermarkets should also be able to maximise the ‘little and often’ purchasing shopping trend over the Bank Holidays in May, which also includes the King’s Coronation weekend.”