Discounters win out as grocery sales growth slows to 3% after Easter

Total Till sales growth slowed to +3% at UK supermarkets in the last four weeks ending 17 May 2025, following +9.6% recorded last month following a boost in Easter sales, according to new data released by NielsenIQ (NIQ).

NIQ said the lower growth rate is a “reset” as shoppers reign back spending on groceries after treating themselves over the Easter holidays, and unit sales at the Grocery Multiples fell -1.4% compared with a year ago.

This change in spending has been seen across in store and online formats and FMCG spend per visit fell (-4.2%) to £18.2. The number of items in the shopping basket also fell compared with last year, indicative of a cautious consumer faced with rising household bills since April.

However, in-store visits are up +7% compared with this time last year, as shoppers take advantage of ongoing retailer promotions. It found that 23% of FMCG sales were on promotion, this is down slightly from the five-year high at Easter but is helping consumers save more at the checkout.

NIQ data also revealed that 41% of households said that loyalty card promotions also influence where they choose to shop which is also helping to drive the increased frequency of visits to stores.

Online sales were relatively weaker with sales down 1.7% on this time last year and online share of grocery sales fell slightly to 12.3%. The number of orders has continued to increase but the average size of order is getting smaller and the number of GB households shopping online every four weeks has plateaued this year at 27%2.

In terms of category performance, the fastest growing super categories were meat, fish and poultry (value sales +8.4% and unit growth +1.5%) signifying continued shopper habits to prioritise healthier options and enjoying home cooked meals. Warmer weather and sunshine also led to growth in soft drinks (+6.7% and +1.2%) with Ice cream value sales up +13% and suncare sales soaring +20% 3 .

In contrast, the weakest super categories were packaged grocery where value sales fell -1.5% and unit sales -5.4% as well as Beer, Wine and Spirits (value sales -2.1% with unit sales down -3.8%).

Mike Watkins, head of Retailer and Business Insight at NIQ, said: “There has been a reset in spending in recent weeks despite the continued good weather which is indicative of a change in shopper behaviour after Easter. Shoppers are still prepared to indulge but are holding back spending on some categories such as household, pet and also some frozen foods.

“Consumer confidence improved a little in May but it is still negative (-20 according to GFK), and shoppers are uncertain about their personal finances. The settled warmer weather gave retailers a boost as shoppers were able to plan more outdoor activities and enjoy alfresco dining, as well as bring forward spend on fresh foods and drinks. However, with shop price inflation in food starting to move up (+2.8% in May, NIQ BRC) we expect Total Till value growth to now remain at around 3% in June.”