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In this episode we speak to Matt Dalton, consumer sector leader at Forvis Mazars. Matt discussed the biggest challenges facing the retail sector, from cost pressures and wage increases to polarised property markets and geopolitical shocks, and the ways in which retailers can best navigate these. We also explore how short-term cost-cutting could undermine long-term resilience, and how retailers can best remain agile and adaptable in unforecastable times.

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UK Total retail sales increased by 2% year on year in September marking the largest increase in over six months, according to the latest BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor.

Food sales increased 3.1% year-on-year over the three months to September, against a growth of 7.4% in September 2023. This is below the 12-month average growth of 4.4%.

Meanwhile, Non-Food sales decreased 0.3% year on year over the three-months to September, against a decline of 1.2% in September 2023 and In-store Non-Food sales over the three months to September decreased 1.5% year on year, against a growth of 0.3% in September 2023.

Online Non-Food sales increased by 3.4% year-on-year in September, against an average decline of 3.6% in September 2023 and the online penetration rate increased to 35.6% in September from 35.1% in September 2023.

Helen Dickinson OBE, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium, said: “Retail sales saw the strongest growth in six months as non-food performed better than expected. As Autumn rolled out across the UK, shoppers sought to update their wardrobes with coats, boots and knitwear. The start of the month also saw a last-minute rush for computers and clothing for the new academic year. Ongoing concerns of consumers about the financial outlook kept demand low for big ticket items such as furniture and white goods.

“The coming months are crucial for the economy as retailers enter the “Golden Quarter”. But in the face of weak consumer confidence and the continued high burden of business rates, retailers’ capacity for further investment is limited. As a result, retailers are holding their breath ahead of the Budget as they work out their investment strategies for the coming year. Decisive action from the Chancellor, such as introducing a 20% Retail Rates Corrector, would help to drive investment and economic growth up and down the country.”

Linda Ellett, UK head of Consumer, Retail and Leisure, KPMG, added: “September saw modest, but welcome, sales growth for retailers. Children’s clothing, footwear and accessories saw a boost from the start of the school year, with household budgets feeling slightly less constrained for some parents compared to last year.

“Similarly, the return to work after summer holidays also led to an upturn in adult clothing and footwear sales. With record rainfall levels in some counties, the cold and wet weather in September sped up purchases of extra layers and wet weather gear. With energy prices having again risen, all eyes now turn to the Budget and what impact that will have on household discretionary spending in the final quarter of the year.”

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